Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Carson Palmer ($7,700) + John Brown ($6,600) = $14,300
The Cardinals host the New York Jets on Monday night in Week 6 in a game that Vegas has as one of the higher scoring games of the week with a total of 46.5 points. The Cardinals implied number is 27 points and they are favored by 7.5 points going against the Jets pass defense which ranks No. 31 in the NFL, surrendering 12 touchdowns through the air to date.
Palmer started the season strong, throwing five touchdowns over the first two games, but he struggled against the Bills and Rams in weeks three and four, but a deeper look at the Bills and Rams pass defenses might give us a glimpse as to why.
The Bills are allowing an average of 8.0 yards per attempt which is good for No. 25 in the NFL but they’ve given up a passer rating of 77.2 which is the seventh best in the game.
The Rams are giving up 6.5 yards per attempt which is good for No. 7 in the NFL. Quarterbacks they have faced have a passer rating of 82.4 which is good for No. 10 in the NFL. The Bills have only given up two scores through the air to date, bested only by Seattle as the Seahawks have only given up one score in 2016.
The point here is that Palmer faced tough defenses in Week 3 and Week 4 and then missed Week 5 with a concussion, but this week he draws one of the easier pass defenses he’ll face this year.
The Jets pass defense is awful and Palmer should have a much easier time in Week 6 than he’s had over the past few games. The Jets are allowing a passer rating of 118.6 to opposing quarterbacks which is worst in the NFL. They’ve been hit by big plays going down the field, surrendering 19 plays of 20+ yards and eight plays of 40+ yards against the pass.
This favors John Brown as he is a vertical weapon and Palmer attacks the deep part of the field regularly. Brown saw 11 targets in Week 3 and 16 targets in Week 4 with Palmer at the helm but came crashing to Earth with Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton playing in Week 5.
Lastly, the Jets are a very tough team to run on as they are the league’s No. 2 rush defense and this looks like a multiple touchdown game coming from the Cardinals passing attack.
Pivot: If you are looking for another option in the Cardinals passing attack, look for Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) to give a high floor option out of the slot.
Russell Wilson ($8,400) + Doug Baldwin ($7,600) = $16,000
The Seahawks bring the Falcons into Seattle in a Week 6 contest that pits two high-octane passing offenses against each other. The Seahawks are favored by six and have an implied total of 26 points at home against one of the league’s worst passing defenses.
The Falcons have given up 147 catches to opposing receivers and have surrendered a league-high 14 touchdowns through the air through five games. Baldwin has the opportunity to go off in this matchup as he’ll draw lesser coverage out of the slot, but he’ll have plenty of room to operate against this porous pass defense.
While the Seahawks have been very tough at home on defense, the Falcons are clicking on all cylinders and they are going to push the Seahawks offense to keep throwing the ball. Vegas has the total at 46 points but I see this game going over with the Seahawks passing attack having a very good day.
In two home games at home in 2016, Baldwin has been targeted 21 times, and in two road games he’s been targeted 10 total times.
Pivot: Jimmy Graham ($6,900) is seeing much more passing volume of late. He saw five total targets in the first two games but has bounced back in a big way getting 17 targets in the past two games he’s played before the bye in Week 5. Graham has over 100 yards in each of his past two games while getting more volume and he should continue to see a healthy amount of work.
Alex Smith ($6,800) + Jeremy Maclin ($6,900) = $13,700
The Chiefs travel to Oakland in Week 6 in what Vegas likes as one of the highest scoring games of the week with a game total of 47 points. The Chiefs are one point underdogs on the road and have an implied total of 23 points.
The Raiders are the league’s worst passing defense and have been exposed each week through five games. They’ve given up a league-worst 24 plays of 20 plus yards against the pass and are the second worst defense in the NFL in yards per attempt. They’ve also given up 12 passes for scores through the air which is among the league’s worst.
In two games against the Raiders last year, Maclin scored three touchdowns and went for 12 catches and 149 total yards. The Raiders implied total is 24 points and it’s clear that there will be points scored in this game which helps to buoy the Chiefs passing attack.
Smith and Maclin are very nice options this week and can be had at a nice value in GPP play.
Cam Newton ($8,900) + Kelvin Benjamin ($7,800) = $16,700
The New Orleans Saints get the Panthers at home in Week 6 and this has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers are struggling on defense and have surrendered big games to receivers recently.
Vegas likes this game as the week’s highest scoring game with a total of 53.5 points. The Panthers have an implied number of 28.5 and the Saints have an implied number of 25 points.
Brees is a different player at home than he is on the road as he’s thrown three or more touchdowns in seven straight home games and he’ll force the Panthers passing attack to keep pace in Week 6. The Saints are No. 29 in the NFL against the pass and have given up 17 plays of 20 or more yards.
In Week 3 in 2015, Newton threw for 315 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown against New Orleans at home. In Week 13 on the road at New Orleans in 2015, Newton threw for 331 yards and five scores in a game the Panthers won 41-38.
Benjamin is a super intriguing option as the Saints defense will funnel targets his way and in a contest that looks (on paper) a lot like the Week 13 game from last year. I see Benjamin and Newton as very safe GPP plays, each with a very high floor and a high ceiling.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Ryan Tannehill ($7,100) + Jarvis Landry ($6,900) = $14,000
The Dolphins bring the Pittsburgh Steelers into Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon and are 7.5 point underdogs at home in what Vegas is calling the second highest scoring game of the week. Vegas has set the total at 48 points, and the Steelers have an implied total of 27.5 while the Dolphins number is 20.5 points.
From a game script perspective, this looks juicy as the Dolphins will likely be trailing and throwing the ball all over the field playing catch up on Sunday. The Steelers have the league’s No. 5 run defense but are weak against the pass, coming into this game with the league’s No. 30 ranked unit versus the pass.
If there’s a way to get at the Steelers, it is with the pass and the script calls for plenty of that in this game. The Steelers have given up 139 receptions to opposing passing game weapons in 2016 which is the second most in the league.
Landry is one of the league’s premier slot receivers and through the first four games he was targeted 10+ times in each game. Last week versus Tennessee he was targeted only three times but I expect a big bounce in volume back to his normal level in Week 6 against the subpar Steelers secondary.
Pass protection has been a big issue for the Dolphins but the Steelers don’t pose a huge threat in this aspect of the game as the come in No. 25 in the NFL in sacks generated. There’s plenty of risk in this stack but there are multiple indicators that point to a good outing for Tannehill and Landry.
Trevor Siemian ($7,300) + Demaryius Thomas ($7,300) = $14,600
The Denver Broncos travel to San Diego Thursday night to take on the Chargers on the road. This game doesn’t have a high total, but the Broncos have an implied number of 24.3 as a three-point favorite.
The Chargers have the league’s No. 8 run defense, giving up 3.6 yards per carry. They are missing stud cornerback Jason Verrett and are the No. 27 pass defense in the NFL. They’ve given up 20 plays of 20 yards or longer against the pass in 2016 which is third-worst in the NFL.
From a script perspective, it could lead to very good numbers from Siemian and the receivers as the Broncos are going to put up points on the Chargers in Week 6. Denver has a stout defense, but San Diego has an implied total of 21.5 points, so multiple scores are expected here.
The Chargers offense and quarterback Philip Rivers should push the Broncos to keep throwing and that means a nice outing from the Broncos passing offense.
Pivot: Emmanuel Sanders ($6,800) offers great upside and another piece of the Broncos passing game as he’s seeing a nice amount of volume in this offense.
Dak Prescott ($7,200) + Cole Beasley ($5,900) = $13,100
Prescott is doing a fantastic job of putting the Cowboys into great situations on offense through five games. He hasn’t turned the ball over and has allowed the running attack to lead the Cowboys in 2016.
However, this week the Cowboys travel to Green Bay and they face the league’s No. 1 rushing defense which will push Prescott to make more plays to keep the Cowboys in this one. Prescott will have to move the pocket with his feet and make short, accurate throws to keep the chains moving in this game.
The Packers are favored by four points and have an implied total of 25.5 points while the Cowboys have an implied total of 21.5 points. It’s likely that the Cowboys will have to throw much more in Week 6 than they have had to through five games in 2016. Even with the rushing attack leading the way, Prescott has been a solid option in 2016, but he’ll have to step it up in Green Bay for the Cowboys to stay in this game.
Beasley is an advanced route runner capable of creating separation early in his routes. He’ll work a lot out of the slot and in the middle of the field and he’ll have to be a big piece on Sunday against a bad, depleted Packers secondary. Rostering Prescott and Beasley allows for great roster flexibility and while both are risky, there is intriguing upside this week.
Brock Osweiler ($6,900) + DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) = $15,000
The Texans host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in an AFC South matchup. Vegas has the game total at 46.5 points and the Texans are a three-point favorite with an implied total of 25 points.
This is a risky selection, but it is based off a very positive game script for the Texans passing attack and the fact that the Colts are allowing outrageous quarterback production through five games in 2016. The Colts are the No. 28 pass defense in the NFL and they’ve allowed big numbers to Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles and Bears quarterback to go off against them.
Hopkins has been quiet to start the 2016 season, but the Colts are very susceptible against the pass and the risk is definitely worth taking as he could go off for big numbers in this game, especially if the Texans can get his target share higher than it has been through five weeks.
Osweiler has the opportunity to bounce back in a very big way in this game as the Colts passing attack is very potent and should keep the Texans offense working at full functionality for the entire game. There is a tremendous amount of risk here, and you are trusting a bad Colts defense and a positive game script, but this could be a very nice GPP stack when all is said and done in Week 6.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,800) + LeVeon Bell ($9,300) = $14,100
The Steelers travel to Miami on Sunday and they are favored by 7.5 points against a team that can’t stop the run. Look for Bell to feast on a bad Dolphins defense in both the passing and running games and for the Steelers defense to have multiple opportunities for turnovers against this Dolphins team.
Buffalo Bills ($4,800) + LeSean McCoy ($8,200) = $13,000
The Bills get the 49ers at home in Week 6 and they’ll get a team that is making a change at quarterback this week. The Bills are 7.5 point favorites and should be in a situation where they are running the ball plenty against the league’s No. 31 ranked rushing defense. Look for McCoy to have a very good day and for the Bills to pressure 49ers starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick all day as they have 17 sacks on the season which is good for fourth best in the NFL. This looks like a very nice stack as both sides of it are easily capable of getting to value in GPP play.
